natesilver538
On Social
Man, Democrats' anxiety levels is off the charts. Which, of course. But it's a good night to have a glass of wine or whatever and chill out about the polls. It's pretty unlikely that the overall polling outlook is going to look much different on Tuesday morning than it does now.
01 November 2020
On Social
Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.
10 October 2020
On Social
I don't want to speculate *too* much about the political ramifications of…this…but that there apparently was a superspreading event, and that there are photos from the event of people hanging out indoors and outdoors in close proximity without masks on, is not great for the WH.
03 October 2020
On Social
"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented.
03 October 2020
On Social
You don't need a fancy algorithm to know that Trump is losing, pretty badly at the moment. The Supreme Court pick doesn't seem to be helping him. The COVID situation may be getting worse again. Maybe the debates will help. But the clock is ticking: people are already voting.
27 September 2020
On Social
And, related, of course, is that Biden still has a fairly large lead in national polls. I remain sort of amazed how unable people are to recognize that opinion among their peer groups/social circles/social media channels is often not representative of public opinion at large. https://t.co/ZmDKcP3MUn
02 December 2019
On Social
The motivation behind a lot of those "welcome to Trump Country where Trump voters still love Trump!" articles is as penance for problems with 2016 coverage. News orgs like NYT convinced themselves that the reason they screwed up 2016 is by not talking to enough Trump voters.
27 December 2017
