WASHINGTON – A new poll has more bad news for President Donald Trump's 2020 re-election hopes in Michigan, showing that more than half of those surveyed either plan to vote for someone else or are considering doing so next year.

The poll, conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, largely tracks with other recent polls done in Michigan and in some other states such as Wisconsin and Florida that show Trump could be in trouble some 20 months before the next election.

It also comes at a time when Trump has failed to reach a deal to denuclearize North Korea and both the budget deficit and the trade deficit have increased significantly. The president also faces a vote in the Senate to repudiate his emergency declaration calling for construction of a wall on the southern border.

Without question, there is time for circumstances to change in Trump's favor, however, especially since campaigning hasn't started and the Democratic field is far from settled. But the poll indicates that Trump faces what could be a tough climb in a state that he won by less than 11,000 votes in 2016.

"Everything is relative to who the opponent is, but a measure of where (Trump's) base is, is the re-elect question," said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn. "And it's much, much lower than it should be."The poll indicates that:

• Nearly half, 49 percent, of respondents in Michigan say they will definitely vote to replace Trump and another 16 percent say they will consider voting for someone else. Only 31 percent said they will definitely vote to re-elect Trump.
• Self-described independent voters are driving down Trump's numbers. Among independents, 44 percent say they will definitely vote for someone else and 27 percent say they will consider backing another candidate, while only 18 percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect.
• Meanwhile, 57 percent of women say they will vote for someone else and 17 percent say they will consider another candidate, compared with 41 percent of men who say they will vote for someone else and 14 percent who say they will consider someone else.
• And while 67 percent of Republican voters said they would vote to re-elect Trump, that is well below the 80 percent of Republicans who believe he is doing a good or excellent job as president. Seventy-four percent of Republican men say they will definitely vote to re-elect Trump, but only 59 percent of Republican women agree.

As with most polls, the EPIC-MRA poll asked respondents their political leanings, and 42 percent of those surveyed identified as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents (compared with 43 percent Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents and 12 percent true independents).

But since only 31 percent of all of those surveyed said they would definitely vote again for Trump, it shows a problem for Trump even among those who would be expected to be his most loyal supporters — the 42 percent who identify as Republican voters.

"The vote to re-elect numbers are 31 percent — 11 points below the (Republican) Party identification.That spells trouble for him," said Porn. "And there are people who are saying they like him, or are giving him a positive job rating, who are still saying they won't re-elect him. That gap is a problem."

The poll shows that Trump's overall favorability rating has dropped from EPIC-MRA's last poll in October, from 43 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable then to 40 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable now.

Meanwhile, the percentage of those surveyed who rated Trump's performance as president dropped from 43 percent positive and 56 percent negative to 40 percent positive and 58 percent negative.

For the poll, EPIC-MRA of Lansing randomly surveyed 600 likely voters in Michigan between Sunday and Thursday of this week.The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Todd Spengler, March 8, 2019

###

March 11, 2019

Voices4America Post Script. More proof we can beat Trump badly if he survives to 2020. Florida is in play. Michigan is in play. We just have to Not Play but work. Register voters for an hour a week until November 2020. Call a friend. #BeatTrump #BeatGOP